No Majority in New Census Count
Hispanic, black populations static

By Carol Dimmick

A new analysis of the 2000 census shows that whites now outnumber Asians in the Richmond District, while the Hispanic and Black populations have remained static or taken a slight dip.

Out of a total population of 67,890, Whites, at 46.1 percent of the population, are now a plurality in District 1. Asians, who have enjoyed that distinction since the 1990 census, have slipped to 44.2 percent.

The detailed analysis of the 2000 census data by voting tracks was recently completed by Christopher Bowman, a member of the Citizens Advisory Committee on Elections. Bowman is working on the project with Jennifer Novak at the SF Department of Elections.

According to Bowman, the shift in the ethnic makeup of District 1 is taking place because Asians are now buying homes in other parts of the city.

"I believe this is because Asians, as they become economically mobile, buy homes in other parts of the city. You have a large percentage of renters in the Richmond District," Bowman said.

It also appears that a citywide pattern of a static Hispanic population and a slightly declining black population are holding true for District 1.

Hispanics currently make up about 4.5 percent of the district's population, which is roughly the same percentage as the 1990 census, while blacks are about 1.6 percent of the population, a slight decline.

"Blacks had a small decline, not sharp, and Hispanics stayed about the same," Bowman said.

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors is currently considering an ordinance to fund a task force to study the new census data and its impact on current district boundary lines.

A number of factors will be considered according to Bowman, but he believes the task force will have to consider whether to expand the district's boundary lines because the Richmond District's population has failed to keep pace with citywide population increases.

The mean population for all districts has now risen to 70,612 because of the citywide population increase, but District 1 has only 67,890 people according to new census data. This means that the district is approximately 3.85 percent below the mean, enough to raise the question of expanding the boundary lines.

"It raises a question for the city attorney," Bowman said. "Do we have to bring it up to the mean?"

Bowman says the task force may decide to wait to take advantage of more detailed data that is expected to become available in the next few months before considering whether district lines should be redrawn.

Within a few months, data which breaks down the broad ethnic categories into subgroups will become available to show a district's percentage of home owners versus renters and sorts the population by voting age.

The San Francisco Board of Supervisors is currently considering an ordinance to appropriate money for the project and the mayor, the director of the Department of Elections and the board of supervisors will soon appoint members of the task force.

After the task force analyzes the census data for all districts in the City, it will hold a series of public hearings in the district on any proposals to change district boundary lines before making a final decision.

Elections are set to be held in November 2002 for even-numbered supervisorial seats and in November 2004 for odd-numbered districts.